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PoS(ICRC2017)088

Forward to automatic forecasting and estimation of expected radiation hazards level

L. Dorman, L. Pustilnik, U. Dai, F. Keshtova, A. Sternlieb

in 35th International Cosmic Ray Conference

Contribution: pdf

Abstract

We present method of automatically forecasting of solar cosmic ray (SCR) impact caused by solar flare and estimation of radiation hazard level. We use model of solar cosmic ray diffusion in general form and coupling functions for neutron monitors network with different altitudes and cut-off rigidities, including also space detectors like GOES-11, 12. Another observational data for estimation of energy spectra is multiplicity of CR registration by some neutron monitors. We demonstrate algorithms for automatic estimation of the event starting, determination time-evolution of SCR in space by coupling functions in the frame of spectrographic method, solving inverse problem for SCR generation in solar corona and propagation in the interplanetary space, automatic determining on the basis of CR observation data parameters of SCR generation in solar corona, escaping into solar wind, and propagation in space. We show that on the basis of these parameters it can be automatic forecasting on the basis of first about 0.5 hour data expected level of radiation hazards for full time of event (up to about 48 hours) for objects in space on different distances from the Sun, in magnetosphere at different orbits, and in atmosphere at different altitudes and cutoff rigidities. If for some objects expected level of radiation hazards will be dangerous, after about 0.5 hour from event beginning will be formatted and sent corresponding Alert. We take into account that for the first about 0.5 hour data from event beginning, when coming mostly only small flux of high energy particles – radiation hazards expected very small in comparison with more delay time when coming main part of SCR with energy  1 GeV, formatted sufficient part of radiation hazards.